51due英国留学资讯平台

本篇英国paper代写-Economic development by industrialization讲了国家通过工业化发展的情况很多，已经通过刘易斯（1954）双重模式等理论进行了验证。然而，也有例外的情况，一个国家除了工业化外，还有其他动力。本文将从与外部经济，集聚，城市化，工业化等概念相关的文献回顾开始。本篇paper代写由51due代写平台整理，供大家参考阅读。

Introduction

There are plenty of cases where countries develop through industrialization, which has been verified by theories such as Lewis (1954) dual sector model. However, exceptions have been found which indicate that there could be other driving forces for a country to develop apart from industrialization. This paper will begin with a literature review associated with concepts including external economy, agglomeration, urbanization, industrialization and so forth. By utilizing the conceptual frameworks the paper will discuss why industrialization is inevitable for a country’s development. Then the paper will review the case of China’s industrialization and development to further test if the theoretical findings stand and conclude the necessity of industrialization in economic development.

I-Literature review

Marshall (1920) proposes that apart from the three factors of production including land, labor and capital, industrial organization is the fourth factor that contributes to the economic output. The concept of industrial organization includes division of labor, improvement of machines, concentration of businesses of a similar character, economy of scale and so forth. These contents are closely related to the concept of industrialization. Firstly, in division of labor, labor force is separated by process so that productivity and efficiency can be ensured. It is related to the allocation of human capital as a result of agglomeration proposed by Lucas (1988). Secondly, utilization of machines is treated as one of the key symbols of industrialization, as the British Industrial Revolution is deemed to be completed in the mid-19th century when mechanical manufacturing was realized. Thirdly, the concentration of businesses of a similar character or agglomeration of businesses can secure the so called external economy which means that the players in a certain industry can have a lower average production cost as the industry’s output increases as a result of the increase in the number of players. External economy and internal economy compose the concept of economy of scale, while the former focuses on how the behavior of a certain producer can impact the external others. 

Agglomeration of human capital and businesses constitutes the condition precedent to industrialization, and moreover, agglomeration also contributes to the profitability of businesses. Rosenstein-Rodan (1943) proposes on the mutual reinforcement of segments and suggests that a whole system of industries can help increase the economic output at the minimized cost of causing disturbance to the market since businesses within this system manufacture to meet the demands of each other. He describes this system as a complementary system within which the risk of not being able to sell is reduced due to mutual satisfaction of demands among different segments and businesses. Isard (1967) holds that economies of agglomeration are generated by businesses locating near each other. Later Murphy and Vishny (1988) discuss on a similar concept called spillover. The main idea is that a business that loses money can still benefit other businesses since it raises labor income and hence the demand for their manufactures and products. Furthermore, they propose on the economies of agglomeration in industrialization, that is, the industrialization of a single segment might not be profitable while if many segments industrialize together, it will be profitable. For instance, the infrastructure facilitates transportation and provides utilities to businesses, while if businesses do not industrialize and do not become the users of the infrastructure, then the infrastructure will have financial loss. The theory regarding the economies of agglomeration sustain into the modern academics. Rosenthal and Strange (2004), Henderson (2005), Overman and Venables (2005) all agree with this economic geography literature which proposes that agglomeration promotes growth. In other words, urbanization is a symbol of growth.

Literatures mentioned above suggest the importance of agglomeration and concentration, and now the focus will be shifted towards the driving forces for agglomeration and concentration. Basically a majority of literatures think that the labor flow out of the agricultural sector to the industrial sector and out of rural areas to urban areas is the major source of industrialization and urbanization, and urbanization is a significant form of agglomeration. Kuznets (1966) proposes that the share of the agricultural sector in the whole economy continues to decrease in terms of both labor force occupation and economic output, implying that the labor force previously engaged in the agricultural sector transfers to the industrial sector. Many scholars hold the view that the agricultural sector supplies both labor force and food stuff to the industrial sector. Some even suggest that the agricultural revolution is the condition precedent to the industrial revolution, including Nurkse (1953) and Rostow (1960) who propose that revolutionary enhancement in agricultural productivity is an inevitable condition precedent to the industrial revolution without which a successful industrial revolution would not have been possible. In this way, the agricultural sector provides assurance of sufficient supplies of resources including labor force and food stuff to the industrial sector, which is called the structural transformation of economy. 

Rosenstein-Rodan (1943) holds that the labor surplus in the agricultural sector can be transferred to the industrial sector, and since the marginal product of labor engaged in agriculture is zero, a labor outflow will not cause any loss to the agricultural sector, which can be treated as a sort of Pareto improvement where a certain group can be benefited while no group will be hurt so the overall benefit of the society gets improved. This is associated with the welfare economics as well. The labor force transferred to the industrial sector will have higher pay, and capital accumulation in the industrial sector triggers greater demands for labor and thus the labor transfer sustains. 

Lewis (1954) raises the dual sector model to explain how the issue of labor surplus is solved in developing countries. The model assumes that a less developed economy is composed of two sectors: the traditional agricultural sector and the modern unban industrial sector. The agricultural sector with labor surplus has a zero marginal product of labor. The actual wage is determined by the average output of labor force. While the modern urban industrial sector has a higher productivity of labor and full employment, the output growth is determined by the investment and capital accumulation in this sector, and the wage equals the marginal product of labor. On the assumption that the wage of the industrial sector keeps unchanged, the agricultural sector can receive dividends, and the labor supply from rural areas to urban areas is completely elastic. Lewis dual sector model concludes that the expansion of the modern industrial sector by labor force flowing from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector is essential for economic development, during which the function of the agricultural sector is primarily supplying cost effective labor force and food stuff to the industrial sector, and it will definitely lead to a structural transformation.

In contrast to Lewis dual sector model, Harris-Todaro (1970) model holds a different viewpoint. Harris-Todaro model assumes that the modern urban industrial sector still has unemployment rather than full employment, and there is no absolute labor surplus with zero marginal product of labor in the traditional agricultural sector. It also assumes that the incentive for labor flow depends on the relationship between the expected wage and the living wage in rural areas, and the expected wage equals the product of the rural-urban wage differential and the probability of finding a job in urban areas. The model concludes that the labor flow is determined by wage expectation, and the constant flow of labor from rural areas to urban areas will trigger oversupply of labor to the cities which cannot be totally absorbed by the modern industrial sector so that unemployment increases and the wage expectation declines and as the wage expectation declines to such a level as equivalent to the wage level in rural areas, the labor transfer will stop.

Furthermore, recently Jedwab (2013) has proposed that some evidence collected from Africa indicates that urbanization is possible without structural transformation. As it can be concluded that urbanization is a symbol of economic development from previous literatures considering the external economies brought by agglomeration, what Jedwab argues is that industrialization is not an essential phase for a country to develop. Rather, Jedwab argues that the export of natural resources drives urbanization by raising the concept of consumption cities which means that wealth is generated in the non-urban sector while spent in the urban sector. Jedwab verifies the argument by studying the export of cocoa whose cultivation mode is quite traditional with limited use of modern or urban inputs such as technology, manufacturing or engineering. Cities emerge and urbanization is realized through resource export rather than structural transformation or industrialization. This is a totally different argument.

II-Discussion on the necessity of industrialization

Now the paper is going to discuss why industrialization is inevitable for a country’s development by utilizing the conceptual frameworks mentioned in the literature review section. The paper will discuss why the arguments in favor of industrialization are more convincing than those opposite views. 

Firstly, even if Harris-Todaro model is based on different assumptions from Lewis’s and suggests that the labor flow from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector will stop at the point when the labor force flowing to cities cannot be employed anymore, it further proposes that the informal sectors or informal employment can help create job opportunities. Chen (2006) points out that informal employment such as part time jobs, hourly work, self-employment, freelancing and so forth is an essential component of the economy. And in cities, there are more opportunities for the informal sectors to emerge considering the diversification of businesses. I agree that there is equilibrium on the proportion of labor force allocation in rural and urban areas while the existence of the informal sectors will retain more human capital in cities. 

Secondly, the mode of resource export proposed by Jedwab might not be sustainable or could be restricted to only several economies with specific natural resource conditions. For instance, only forested areas can be used to cultivate cocoa while other areas are not qualified. And the forests are consumed during the cocoa cultivation process while the sustainability is doubted, for example if the forests are used up or the lands become unsuitable due to climate change someday, will those economies relying on resource export experience crisis? We have to find general rules to solve practical issues faced by a majority of economies rather than only focus on a few special cases which are not convincing if tested in a wider scope. On the other hand, those countries without abundant natural resources still can develop well like Japan and Singapore, and they grow stronger by industrialization. To say the least, countries with abundant natural resources also need to go through industrialization to make a leap in economic development such as China which will be specifically studied in the next section.

Considering the benefits brought by external economy, agglomeration and urbanization including higher productivity, efficiency, income and economic output, it is well grounded to believe that at least a majority of countries have to industrialize in order to develop.

III-Evidence from China

China used to be an agricultural giant while began to industrialize when the Self-Strengthening Movement in the late Qing Dynasty was initiated. At that time, scholars had realized the importance of industrialization for the economy to develop. Therefore, large scale manufacturing enterprises emerged covering ships, railways, telegram, mining, textiles and so forth. This trend is in line with the theories of agglomeration and external economy proposed by Marshall (1920), Rosenstein-Rodan (1943), Isard (1967) and Murphy and Vishny (1988) stressing the mutual reinforcement effect among various segments which triggers the demands for different products and manufactures. In the second half of the 20th century, China’s industrialization was accelerated and a huge amount of labor force left the rural areas for the cities to be engaged in the modern industrial sector for better pay. This trend verifies Lewis dual sector model and Harris-Todaro model that propose the coexistence of two sectors in an economy, the flow of labor force between them and the wage incentive. China’s urbanization and economic development are closely associated with the industrialization, and presented with a strong economic performance to the world. As Deng et al. (2008) suggested, China’s urban core needs further expansion for maintaining a high growth.

This paper performs three groups of regression at a confidence level of 95% by utilizing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, including GDP (trillion RMB), Population engaged in the industrial sector (million), Population engaged in the agricultural sector (million), Disposable income per capita in urban areas (RMB) and Disposable income per capita in rural areas (RMB) from 1995 to 2010. The results of the three groups of regression are:

-Y= GDP, X1= Population engaged in the industrial sector, X2=Population engaged in the agricultural sector, and the regression result shows that Y = -156.19 + 0.70 X1 + 0.15 X2. 

-Y= Disposable income per capita in urban areas, X1= Population engaged in the industrial sector, X2=Population engaged in the agricultural sector, and the regression result shows that Y = -81,700.84 + 337.73 X1 + 93.76 X2.

-Y= Disposable income per capita in rural areas, X1= Population engaged in the industrial sector, X2=Population engaged in the agricultural sector, and the regression result shows that Y = -19,637.24 + 87.35 X1 + 21.67 X2.

All the three groups of regression have a Multiple R over 0.95, a Significance F close to 0.00, indicating significant correlations. However, the P-value for X1 is below 0.05 while the P-value for X2 is over 0.05. Therefore, the results demonstrate that GDP and disposable income per capita are significantly positively correlated with the population engaged in the industrial sector, while there is no significant correlation between GDP or disposal income per capita and the population engaged in the agricultural sector. The result goes in favor of the viewpoint that the country develops via industrialization.

IV-Conclusion

To conclude, generally countries industrialize in order to develop. This paper has reviewed the literatures both in favor of and opposite to this argument, and discussed on the pitfalls of those opposing viewpoints. Also this paper has collected both qualitative and quantitative evidence from the case of China that has achieved outstanding economic development through industrialization to support the argument.

Appendix

Figure 1: Regression output for Y= GDP, X1= Population engaged in the industrial sector, X2=Population engaged in the agricultural sector

Figure 2: Regression output for Y= Disposable income per capita in urban areas, X1= Population engaged in the industrial sector, X2=Population engaged in the agricultural sector

Figure 3: Regression output for Y= Disposable income per capita in rural areas, X1= Population engaged in the industrial sector, X2=Population engaged in the agricultural sector

Figure 4: Growth of GDP

Figure 5: Growth of population engaged in different sectors

Figure 6: Growth of disposable income per capita in different areas

Works Cited

Chen, M. A. (2006). Linkages with the Formal Economy and the Formal Regulatory Environment. (Vol.volume 28, pp.75-93).

Deng, X., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., & Uchida, E. (2008). Growth, Population and Industrialization, and Urban Land Expansion of China. Journal of Urban Economics, 63(1), 96-115.

Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. American Economic Review, 60(1), 126-42.

Henderson, J. V. (2005). Urbanization and Growth. Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(05), 1543-1591.

Isard, W. (1967). Game Theory, Location Theory and Industrial Agglomeration. Papers in Regional Science, 18(1), 1-11.

Jedwab, R. (2013). Urbanization without Structural Transformation: Evidence from Consumption Cities in Africa. Processed.

Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern Economic Growth: Rate. Structure, and Spread.

Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191.

Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.

Marshall, A. (1920). Principles of Economics: An Introductory Volume. Macmillan.

Murphy, K. M., & Vishny, R. W. (1988). Industrialization and the Big Push. Nber Working Papers, 97(5), 1003-1026.

National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China. Annual Report.

Nurkse, R. (1953). Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries. Oxford University Press.

Overman, H. G., & Venables, A. J. (2005). Cities in the Developing World. General Information, 1(6), 477-501.

Rosenstein-Rodan, P. N. (1943). The Problems of Industrialization of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. Economic Journal, 53(210-211), 202-211.

Rosenthal, S. S., & Strange, W. C. (2004). Evidence on the Nature and Sources of Agglomeration Economies. Handbook of Regional & Urban Economics, 4(04), 2119-2171.

Rostow, W. W. (1960). The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. Cambridge University Press.

要想成绩好，英国论文得写好，51due代写平台为你提供英国留学资讯，专业辅导，还为你提供专业英国essay代写，paper代写，report代写，需要找论文代写的话快来联系我们51due吧。—Ace